Joao Guerreiro
I am a macroeconomist focusing in business cycles, fiscal policy, inequality, and imperfect expectations. I also work on understanding the consequences of demographic and technological changes for inequality and the optimal response of public policy. I am an Assistant Professor of Economics at UCLA. I graduated from Northwestern University with a Ph.D. in Economics in June 2023.
Working Papers
Why do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs (with Jonathon Hazell, Chen Lian, and Christina Patterson)
January 2025 – Submitted
NBER-WP Media: Macro Musings Podcast Marginal Revolution Bloomberg WSJ Chicago Booth Review X Thread
Foreign Residents and the Future of Global Cities (with Sergio Rebelo, Pedro Teles, and Miguel Godinho de Matos)
November 2024 – Submitted
NBER-WP Media: Kellogg Insight Kellogg Insight on Empirical Facts X Thread
Regulating Artificial Intelligence (with Sergio Rebelo and Pedro Teles)
September 2024
NBER-WP Media: Kellogg Insight X Thread
Unemployment Insurance in Macroeconomic Stabilization with Imperfect Expectations (with Bence Bardóczy)
February 2024
Belief Disagreement and Business Cycles
February 2023
Publications
Fiscal Stimulus with Imperfect Expectations: Spending vs. Tax Policy (with Riccardo Bianchi-Vimercati and Martin Eichenbaum)
Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 217, April 2024
DOI NBER-WP Citation
Should Robots Be Taxed? (with Sergio Rebelo and Pedro Teles)
Review of Economic Studies, Volume 89(1), September 2021
DOI NBER-WP Citation Media: Marketwatch Kellogg Insight Fast Company Jornal de Negócios (Portuguese) VOXEU
What is the Optimal Immigration Policy? Migration, Jobs and Welfare (with Sergio Rebelo and Pedro Teles)
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 113, August 2020
DOI NBER-WP Citation Media: VOXEU
Work in Progress
Ricardian Non-Equivalence (with Martin Eichenbaum and Jana Obradović)
The Labor Mobility Slowdown: Origins and Macro Implications